Exact temerile mele despre AAPL

Cody de la tradingwithcody.com in Q&A ieri:

Q. Hi, Cody. Much of the chatter on the board today is about AAPL, which just hasn’t been able to gain any momentum of late. Seems as though we are spoiled by AAPL’s past stellar performance. Is the hope of a good earnings report the one thing out there that could be a catalyst, or is there something else out there that could help to sway us back towards $600? Thanks.

A. I’m worried that there’s still too many weak-handed longs hanging onto the AAPL heading into the earnings report and that if it’s not absolutely stellar, then we could still be stuck in a range on the Apple for another three months. I’m still holding onto all my long-held common from much, much lower levels and all of my calls, though it looks like I might be taking a loss on some of those calls if this thing doesn’t get a groove back on in a hurry.

Q. Cody: in order to call it a ‘stellar’ quarter for AAPL, what is the number of EPS/revenue/iphone you expect? Is 50m iphone sold good enough?

A. I’d say they need to report $16 a share in earnings (est is $13 or so) and at least $57 billion in revenues (est is $55b). It won’t matter too much what the break down of those revenue drivers are, whether iPhone 5 sales or iPad Mini or even huge Mac sales (I got a new 15″ Retina MacBook that is AWESOME for xMas!), we just need blowout numbers on the earnings and revenues.

Din pacate, faptul ca AAPL nu a continuat trendul crescator de imediat dupa rezolvarea fiscal cliff-ului ne arata ca pesimismul e inca gros. Un trend reversal care nu apare rapid nu mai are timp sa se manifeste pana in earnings, iar daca pesimismul nu e risipit pana in earnings un raport rezonabil (adica record dar doar +10-20% nu mai mult) nu va risipi temerile investitorilor. Asta e efectul unui bear market prelungit, si e nevoie de noi informatii care sa dea o schimbare completa de atitudine a celor de pe margine ca stocul sa reia cresterea. :(

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