Lună: iulie 2013

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Apple a trecut azi de 450 pe un volum frumusel. Eu am cumparat spread 440-465 de octombrie platind 12$, cand AAPL era la 454, deci in esenta sunt deja pe profit (piata pariaza pe o cadere a Apple pana in octombrie, sau cel putin nu a tinut pasul cu cresterea actiunilor). Eu zic ca sunt easy money si pun ordin de vanzare la $23. Go AAPL!

Samsung Electronics has not dethroned Apple, Inc. in mobile profits

Reporters had a hard time presenting this information. An initial report by Steve Kovach of BusinessInsiderproclaimed „Samsung Made $1.43 Billion More In Profit Than Apple Last Quarter, ” before the site realized that it was comparing Apple’s after tax net income to Samsung Electronics pre-tax operational income.

Samsung Electronics has not dethroned Apple, Inc. in mobile profits.

So there.

Amazon investors may start to get fed up – MarketWatch First Take – MarketWatch

Still, it’s worth noting that Amazon’s shares, which were off about 1.7% in after-hours to around $297.70, are trading at a price/earning ratio of around 132 times earnings over the next 12 months. One of its e-commerce rivals, another giant, eBay Inc. EBAY -1.15%  is currently trading at 17.3 times earnings for the next 12 months. Internet ad behemoth Google Inc. GOOG -1.68%  trades around 15 times earnings.Colin Gillis, an analyst with BGC Financial, talked about Amazon’s razor thin profit margins in a recent note, in which he wrote, “The clock is ticking for Amazon to show that it can sell its goods and services while making a profit that might start to justify its $136 billion market capitalization.”After the company’s second quarter results, it’s a good point to consider.

via Amazon investors may start to get fed up – MarketWatch First Take – MarketWatch.

Mie mi se pare AMZN un candidat bun la shortare, pe termen mai lung. Nu vad sa aiba un moat indestructibil, in afara de brandul si know how-ul de executie. Deci nu vad ce i-ar opri pe altii cu brand si know how si buzunare mai largi (din profituri serioase trimestru de trimestru) sa intre pe piata B2C de indata ce piata devine atractiva, atunci cand Amazon se hotaraste sa impinga preturile in sus pentru a-si introduce o marja de profit. Ca sa nu mai vorbim de decelerarea vanzarilor care ar surveni ca urmare a elasticitatii preturilor. In online pretul e esential, comparatia e facila si clientii trec imediat mai departe in cautare de chilipir cand scumpesti. Cred ca AMZN se va prabusi de indata ce investitorii, ca gloata, se hotarasc sa ceara profituri sau sa vanda.

The irrelevance of Microsoft — Benedict Evans

Just as overnight success can take a lifetime, so overnight collapse can also take a long time. There are founders creating companies today who weren’t born when people were still actually scared of big bad ‘Micro$oft’. It stopped setting the agenda 18 years ago. Windows 95 was the moment of victory, but was also the peak: it came just at the moment that the Internet started taking off, and Microsoft was never a relevant force on the internet despite investing tens of billions of dollars.

But you needed a PC to use the internet, and for almost everyone that PC ran Windows, so Microsoft’s failure to create successful online services didn’t seem to matter. Microsoft survived and thrived in the PC internet era, despite appearing to be irrelevant, by milking its victory in the previous phase of the technology industry. PC sales were 59m units in 1995 and rose to over 350m in 2012. Of course, that’s now coming to an end. 

Though it looks like we’ve passed the tipping point, this process isn’t going to be over quickly. PC sales aren’t going to zero this year. But the replacement cycle, already at 5 years, will lengthen further and further, more and more apps will move to mobile or the cloud, and for many people the PC will end up like the printer or fax – vestigial reminders of an older way of doing things. Microsoft may yet manage to turn Windows tablets and phones into products with meaningful market share, but it will never be dominant again. 


The irrelevance of Microsoft — Benedict Evans.