Lună: octombrie 2013

Apple’s Q4 2013 earnings report and conference call

Live: Apple’s Q4 2013 earnings report and conference call – Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech.

Apple beats across the board, guides somewhat weak. Stock down 3%. Then this comes in the earnings call:

Oppenheimer: If it weren’t for $900 million deferrals, the GM guidance would have been higher.

 Gene Munster: So 38.5% GM midpoint if it weren’t for deferral? Yes.

Wall St gets its magic number, and then some, and everything is good again.

Bravo Apple, esti pe drumul cel bun.


The Apple Number That Really Matters Is 37

Last quarter Apple (AAPL) reported earnings of $7.47 per share, compared to the consensus earnings estimate of $7.30 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number of $7.43 per share. This was the first beat since April 2012 for the bottom-line, but the top-line still missed whispered expectations. The main reason the company was able to beat earnings per share expectations was a 36 million share buyback that took ten million shares out of the weighted average share count used as the denominator in the per-share math. The company had guided for revenue of $33.5 billion to $35.5 billion and revenue whispers were $36.5 billion compared to the consensus estimate of $35.2 billion. The company reported $35.3 billion. That revenue number gave more support to the realization that Apple is no longer Steve Jobs’ company and the practice of low-balling guidance to easily hurdle later is a thing of the past. Few analysts believe there is much reason to expect that to change this quarter.

So, for the fiscal fourth quarter ended September 30, 2013, Apple guided revenue of $34.0 billion to $37.0 billion with gross margins of 36.0% to 37.0%. The company also provided guidance for operating expenses of $3.90 billion to $3.95 billion, other income of $200.0 million, and a tax rate of 26.5%. Plug those numbers in and you get an earnings per share range of $6.75 to $7.94 per share using 924.2 million shares. The consensus earnings estimate was set at $7.69 per share until September 23, 2013 when the company filed a statement with the SEC that it sold more than nine million new iPhone 5s and 5c models during the first three days of availability and, as a result, expects revenue and gross margins to come in at the high-end of its guidance range. The consensus earnings estimate is now $7.92 per share on revenue of $36.82 billion. The Earnings Whisper ® number is $8.02 per share, which is the very high end of the guidance range after adjusting the share count to 915 million. Regardless, as long as revenue is $37.0 billion or below and gross margins are 37.0% or below, the results will be viewed as in-line and that is what nearly every real analyst, on both the buy and sell-side, expects for the quarter.

Apple Inc. (AAPL): The Apple Number That Really Matters Is 37 – Seeking Alpha.

Go AAPL tonight!

Crazy Bitcoin

Screen Shot 2013-10-24 at 20.33.23

Azi BTC a avut o volatilitate imensa, osciland (la MtGox) intre $175 si $233 in doar cateva ore. Bitcoin era pe o panta ascendenta destul de rapida de cateva zile (de cand o divizie a Baidu a aprobat, probabil cu acordul guvernului chinez, BTC ca mijloc de plata) dar azi miscarile au fost absolut remarcabile.

Eu am ramas cu banii investiti in bitcoin (la un curs mediu de $117, deci cu profit substantial) si incerc sa imi validez contul de la BitStamp ca sa ii vand pe val.

Carl Icahn Letter to Apple’s Tim Cook

When we met, you agreed with us that the shares are undervalued. In our view, irrational undervaluation as dramatic as this is often a short term anomaly. The timing for a larger buyback is still ripe, but the opportunity will not last forever. While the board’s actions to date ($60 billion share repurchase over three years) may seem like a large buyback, it is simply not large enough given that Apple currently holds $147 billion of cash on its balance sheet, and that it will generate $51 billion of EBIT next year (Wall Street consensus forecast).

The S&P 500 trades at roughly 14x forward earnings. After backing off net cash, Apple trades at just 9x (not factoring into account that the company has a significantly lower cash tax rate than the rate Wall Street analysts use). This discount (cash adjusted) becomes even more compelling given our confidence that Apple will grow earnings per share at a rate well in excess of the S&P 500 for the foreseeable future. With such an enormous valuation gap and such a massive amount of cash on the balance sheet, we find it difficult to imagine why the board would not move more aggressively to buy back stock by immediately announcing a $150 Billion tender offer (financed with debt or a mix of debt and cash on the balance sheet).

While this would certainly be unprecedented because of its size, it is actually appropriate and manageable relative to the size and financial strength of your company. Apple generates more than enough cash flow to service this amount of debt and has $147 billion of cash in the bank. As we proposed at our dinner, if the company decided to borrow the full $150 billion at a 3% interest rate to commence a tender at $525 per share, the result would be an immediate 33% boost to earnings per share, translating into a 33% increase in the value of the shares, which significantly assumes no multiple expansion. Longer term (in three years) if you execute this buyback as proposed, we expect the share price to appreciate to $1,250, assuming the market rewards EBIT growth of 7.5% per year with a more normal market multiple of 11x EBIT.

It is our belief that a company’s board has a responsibility to recognize opportunities to increase shareholder value, which includes allocating capital to execute large and well-timed buybacks. Apple’s Board of Directors does not currently include an individual with a track record as an investment professional. In my opinion, any further delay in executing the buyback we hereby propose will reflect this lack of expertise on the board. My firm’s success and my expertise as an investor would be difficult for anyone to argue. Per my investment thesis, commencing this buyback immediately would ultimately result in further stock appreciation of 140% for the shareholders who choose not to sell into the proposed tender offer. Furthermore, to invalidate any possible criticism that I would not stand by this thesis in terms of its long term benefit to shareholders, I hereby agree to withhold my shares from the proposed $150 Billion tender offer. There is nothing short term about my intentions here.

via Carl Icahn Letter to Apple’s (AAPL) Tim Cook.

Foarte interesant. Mosul propune, si insista, ca Apple sa intre in datorii si sa foloseasca banii imprumutati pentru a rascumpara actiuni intr-o oferta publica fixa la $525, acum cat pretul e mic, cu scopul de a reduce actiunile in circulatie, a creste EPS si valoarea actiunilor (tinta: $1250 in 3 ani), in acest fel recompensand actionarii care aleg sa ramana.

Eu nu cred ca Tim Cook ar trebui sa isi piarda prea multa vreme cu prostiile astea, daca are in maneca un produs revolutionar care va da din 2014 o noua directie majora de crestere companiei. Insa Icahn il ameninta, nu foarte voalat, ca daca nu face asta board-ul va fi judecat ca nepriceput in returnarea valorii catre actionari. Trecand peste faptul ca nu e chiar asa cum zice Icahn (de pilda, ofertele publice de rascumparare de actiuni se fac la pret semnificativ mai mare decat cursul actual al actiunii, mai ales daca actiunea are in acel moment o tendinta clara de apreciere, asa cum e AAPL acum), reactia lui Tim Cook ne va arata cat de sigur pe viitorul companiei e el. Sa vedem.

Pana atunci „afacerea” Icahn va mai impinge pretul actiunii in sus. Ceea ce nu poate fi decat pozitiv. Go AAPL!

Apple’s new iPads, Macs, OS X: What the analysts are saying

„As always with Apple, expectations on systematic breakthrough hardware innovations are irrational. Apple is good at inventing new products (e.g., iPod, iPhone, or iPad) and at maximizing profitability of its product range over time through software innovations and clever marketing. Yes, at some point, the company will need to disrupt a new market once again, but today’s announcement is really about making sure it maintains the premium brand experience for the holiday season when competition is heating up — not just for tablets but also for the amazing new line of Mac products.”

via Apple’s new iPads, Macs, OS X: What the analysts are saying – Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech.

Review-uri pozitive. La fel ca la iPhone, aducerea Chinei in lista de tari care primesc noile iPads din prima zi este un plus semnificativ pentru trimestrul curent.

Sunt curios daca astfel se va re-ignite cresterea la iPads, care au avut primul trimestru de scadere in aprilie-iunie, si probabil ca vor anunta o noua scadere in iulie-septembrie. E drept ca nu e un produs pe care sa il schimbi asa de des ca un iPhone (pentru ca nu il porti peste tot cu tine si nu se deterioreaza atat de repede) dar e pacat ca aceasta oportunitate formidabila de business sa isi incheie cresterea atat de devreme.

2014 ‘Year of the Boom!’ Bet on the bulls now

We think stronger growth, perhaps much stronger U.S. growth, will be the investor surprise in the next 12 month … with a successful asset price reflation” generated by five powerful engines driving our recovery … “significant monetary stimulus … a booming housing market … an inexpensive dollar … record corporate cash balances … and increasing energy independence.”

via 2014 ‘Year of the Boom!’ Bet on the bulls now – Paul B. Farrell – MarketWatch.

Nu ne putem opune binelui care ne copleseste :)