Lună: Martie 2014

Why Warren Buffett Is Not The World’s Greatest Value Investor – Forbes

Why Warren Buffett Is Not The World’s Greatest Value Investor – Forbes.

Articolul e cat se poate de interesant pentru ca listeaza criteriile lui Buffett, pe care il declara mai degraba „cel mai bun investitor in companii de inalta calitate”. Cu peste 20%/an return mediu din 1965 incoace, Buffett este fara indoiala cel mai bun investitor pe termen lung, punct.

Ma tenteaza masiv sa incep si eu un portofoliu cu companii selectate pe criteriile lui, in care sa iau shares sau LEAPs si de la care sa astept ~10%/an.

Anunțuri

The probability of a Eurozone break-up

Deflation refers to the generalised negative change in the level of prices. Once it sets in it leads to a phenomenon called debt deflation which, if not checked through fiscal or monetary policy, the effects for the economy will be certainly dire.

Debt deflation refers to the causal interdependencies between debt, deflation and default. Under this process, a generalised fall in prices triggers the sale of financial and real assets in order to pay off debts. But the sale of these assets leads to a further fall in the prices of goods which reduces profits and leads to job losses. These in turn reduce wages and demand leading to a further fall in prices.

Yet, despite the fact that wages and profits fall, debt payments do not decline, a fact which increases real debt levels and hence defaults leading to a rise in non-performing loans which threatens the integrity of the banking system. In the context of the Eurozone, deflation would also be a big problem for the heavily indebted peripheral states which would see their borrowing costs increase and their tax revenues reduced.

The probability of a Eurozone break-up | Cyprus Mail.

 

George Soros: Germany botched crisis response and EU may not survive

It’s no secret that Geroge Soros thinks Germany has bungled the response to Europe’s debt crisis with its insistence on across-the-board austerity. On Wednesday, the billionaire hedge-fund legend said he feared the European Unionwas headed for “long-lasting stagnation” and that the pan-European institution might not survive it.

“My hope is that Germany is going to change and realize that that the policy of austerity is counterproductive,” Soros told the BBC. Germany’s collective memory is of inflation, Soros said, referring to the hyperinflation that followed World War I and is often described as sowing the seeds for the rise of the Nazis. As a result, German policy makers “continue fighting inflation when the threat is deflation,” Soros said.

The billionaire, in a separate event in London, said Germany’s decision to remain in the euro zone “fulfilled my worst expectations,” CNBC reported. A German exit, which he had advocated previously, would have resulted in a tough but difficult “quick fix” that would have let the region rebalance.

 

Instead, the EU has been transformed into a “creditor-debtor relationship” that is endangering the organization.

 

George Soros: Germany botched crisis response and EU may not survive.

Apple: The Next 2 Months Are Critical

Summary

Upcoming earnings report may be more about Q3 guidance than Q2 results.

A larger capital return plan may be coming, but may be brushed off if growth concerns remain.

A sign of future potential may unlock a depressed valuation.

Apple needs more than just new iPhones and iPads.

via Apple: The Next 2 Months Are Critical.

Parerea mea e ca habar n-avem ce ne va anunta Apple si cu atat mai putin cand o va face. Ar putea veni peste o saptamana cu un produs revolutionar si actiunea ar sari masiv, „unlocking a depressed valuation”. Sau ar putea sa se lungeasca pana in toamna fara produse noi, si atunci actiunea va cadea clar inapoi sub $500.

In lipsa unei lansari, eu imi propun sa vand inainte de earnings-urile din aprilie call-uri de ianuarie 600 pentru a inchide spread-ul cu call-urile de ianuarie 500 pe care le am – locking some of the profits.

Apoi, daca actiunea cade semnificativ imediat dupa earnings, imi propun sa cumpar leaps de 2016 cand se confirma vreun suport fibonacci.

Pentru cei care au actiuni, eu as sta linistit. Turbulentele astea de zi cu zi nu conteaza in marea schema a lucrurilor, si cel mai probabil ca in 2016-2017, cand noile produse care se lanseaza in curand isi vor dovedi potentialul, vom rade de cat de tematori eram de soarta lui Apple in 2014. Apple are un suport cat se poate de serios dat de valuatia mica, de dividend si de programul de buyback, si nu poate cadea semnificativ. Iar potentialul de upside este limitat doar de imaginatie.

A propos, stiati ca industria telecom (adica operatorii de telefonie) e de cateva ori mai mare (ca incasari) decat industria de telefoane mobile (producatorii)?

Speculatie scurta pe PLUG care o luase razna

La indemnul lui Cody am intrat ieri pe:

PLUG 2014.04 PUT 10 @ 2.4

El observase acest grafic aberant:

Screen Shot 2014-03-11 at 20.06.28

Practic in mai putin de 10 zile PLUG urcase de la sub 4 la peste 10. Orice s-ar fi intamplat, compania nu putea sa isi tripleze valoarea.

Ei bine, azi dupa cum vedeti pe grafic a luat-o inapoi, si eu am vandut, tot la indemnul lui Cody, PUT-urile cu $3, adica +25% intr-o zi.

Multumesc Cody :)

 

7 signs we’re near a market top, and what to do now – Michael Sincere’s Long-Term Trader – MarketWatch

Those who have studied market history have seen this story before, and the ending is always the same. No matter how many warnings you give, no many how you urge people to avoid buying the speculative Go-Go stocks and move to the sidelines, few listen until it is too late.

7 signs we’re near a market top, and what to do now – Michael Sincere’s Long-Term Trader – MarketWatch.

Fools And Their Bitcoin | TechCrunch

 

Fools and children have hijacked the bitcoin conversation. What happens next? After the kids get bored the big companies will storm in and take control, turning bitcoin into a defanged mode of money transfer. PayPal would be happy to be your BTC provider of record while Chase would love to grab some of the potential transfer fees while happily taking advantage the frictionless payment process. Amazon would love to offer you a secret wallet full of money that you budget for Amazon wares. Anyone with any sense sees that this is the direction bitcoin is headed.

Fools And Their Bitcoin | TechCrunch.