Apple introduced the new iPhone 6 (4.7-inch) and iPhone 6 Plus (5.5-inch) with availability set for Sept.19 (pre-orders commencing on Friday, 9/12) – initial launch slated for 9 countries across +200 carriers, which we would highlight as initially excluding China (albeit we would expect this to be added quickly and include China Mobile; China Mobile iPhone support commenced on 1/17/14)
Between the new beautiful design, bigger screens and battery life, and Apple Pay, I expect very strong sales until Christmas. Not including China in the first batch means supply constraints at the beginning, especially with the 5.5″. But soon China Mobile will add significantly to the YoY comparison, and the Plus pricing and big difference in memory between 16/64/128 GB models will hike ASP without a big impact on costs.
All in all, I expect a great autumn for Apple. If only they could bring more innovation to the iPad this year, as poor thing desperately needs it. But let’s face it: this is the autumn of iPhone 6, and spring will belong to Apple Watch. So I guess iPad can wait/linger/bleed until next autumn, hopefully with a 13″ model in the spring to keep it from dropping dramatically.
AAPL: the support at 97.20 was tested yesterday in the typical „sell the news” action, and it held. I expect it to open up today and stay around 100 until the launch weekend. Then, if we get a big number, the stock will fly, otherwise it will go with the market until the full impact of Apple Pay and Apple Watch can be fully grasped. And make no mistake: the impact will be huge, once people start using them.