iPhone 6 demand and my take on it

I’ve been trying (after about an hour of delay – wtf Apple??) to order from the UK Apple store a number of iPhones for me and my family today, and I watched closely the inventory on all the models.

The iPhone 6 Plus of 128 GB in gold and silver disappeared in a minute or two. Then after another 5 minutes the 6 Plus space grey was gone, with delivery times of 3-4 weeks.

Then, in about 30 minutes also the iPhone 6 (the smaller of the two) in 128 GB has been sold out.

Then, in another 30 minutes all the 6 Plus were gone, displaying delivery times of at least 7-10 business days, or 3-4 weeks.

After a few hours the 6-es were gone as well. Same for the German store.

In the US, you can still get a 6 on launch day, just not the 16 GB gold. The 6 Plus-es are all gone, with further deliveries in 3-4 weeks.

Conclusions:

1. Demand is very high, at least at launch, especially for the Plus and the higher capacities. If supply is not significantly tighter than last year (and I hope it isn’t, since they dropped the sapphire glass rumored to have been the problem for the Plus), we should have good launch numbers.

2. By launching two phones at the same time, Apple is repeating last year’s strategy of product portfolio. However, there are some important differences:

– pricing has gone up by 100$ for both 6 vs. 5C and for 6 Plus vs. 5S. This means at least +$80 in ASP and growing markups. Amazing news for the bottomline.

– the lower phone (6) is not an old product repackaged (as it was with 5C which had 5 internals). So the demand for it should be better, especially coming from those who despised the ugly big Android phones until yesterday.

– by having two new products with two new form factors, Apple is pushing its loyal base to order more to be able to use both (one for him and one for her, for example) and/or to upgrade quicker (ok, I’ll take this year the 6 but next year I really really have to take the 6S plus, just to see what I’ve been missing in that huge screen – or vice versa).

3. Tim Cook was just asked in an interview how comes that they’re now copying competitors’ ideas with the big screens. His honest answer was „by design” and “It’s an incredible opportunity for us to switch people from Android to iOS.”. Which it is indeed.

I would very much like to short Samsung right now. And I will also look into buying LEAPs for AAPL next week.

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