Now _this_ is interesting!
Now _this_ is interesting!
Microsoft and Nokia need to fire and I mean fire immediately every single marketing partner they have, both US and internationally. This is the most inane, ridiculous marketing spot I have ever seen. Somehow a guy touches a tablet and grows a mullet? How this makes me want to buy the Lumia 2520 instead of running from it like Rick runs from his leadership role on the Walking Dead is beyond comprehension.
But what will happen to Nokia once it has shed the weight of its Mobile business is the question investors want answered. While the company has not definitively set out a new business model, the core of the company will now be comprised of its telecoms equipment business — Nokia Solutions and Networks, or NSN. With the cash from Microsoft’s acquisitions, Nokia could buy out a rival so as to better compete with rival Ericsson. This possibility has received plenty of scrutiny from shareholders; typically, big purchases make both analysts and investors worry.
“That is usually the position you don’t want them to take: the danger is they pay too much and there are big integration risks,” Nordea analyst Sami Sarkamie told the Financial Times. But, the unit’s Chief Executive Officer Rajeev Suri told the publication he will not be pushed into any “silly acquisitions” nor make any significant transformations in the near future. Still, he did admit that the longer term picture could include acquisitions given the new strength of Nokia’s balance sheet. The early days of the new business configuration will not be easy ones. Like the smartphone market, the telecoms market is highly competitive and made all the more difficult thanks to lower cost alternatives made in China. NSN’s revenue dropped 26 percent, year-over-year, in the third quarter.
Nokia s-a dublat de cand a anuntat vanzarea diviziei de telefoane catre Microsoft, ajungand la un market cap de peste 29bn. Net cash e sub 3 bn si mai au de primit vreo 7.2 bn de la Microsoft, asa ca net enterprise value ar fi estimata de piata aproape de 20bn. Pentru ce? O divizie in cadere cu 26% de echipamente de retea, concurata masiv de chinezi, si un business in continua pierdere de harti, care nu e clar cui ii vor mai vinde hartile de indata ce preluarea telefoanelor de catre Microsoft se incheie?
E adevarat ca Nokia a stiut mereu sa renasca din propria cenusa, ca au acces la talent si pricepere considerabila, iar cele 10 bn net cash sunt o ancora solida si un potential de investitii semnificativ. Dar pana isi gasesc drumul eu ii vad mai degraba in jos de la pretul actual (in jur de 7.8-8$). Shortam, cu un orizont de 6-12 luni?
Pe fondul slabiciunii de ieri si azi a MSFT (in urma anuntului de cumparare a diviziei de telefoane a Nokia) am rascumparat azi si ultimele bear call spreads MSFT 30-35 de ianuarie 2014.
Am platit $1.92 pe ce incasasem in 30 mai $3.38 deci profit +90% (calculez rata profitului ca raport intre suma profitului si suma riscata, deci calculul este (3.38-1.92)/(5-3.38)).
Multumesc Microsoft, multumesc Ballmer, multumesc Elop, multumesc Nokia.
is this a doubling down on the existing, failing strategy, or a foundation for a new one?
suna plauzibil. Si eu cred ca Elop a facut o greseala strategica majora (intentionat sau nu) cand a ales Windows Phone in loc de Android. Daca linia Lumia ar fi rulat Android vanzarile ar fi fost incomparabile mai mari, concurandu-l serios pe Samsung.
Talking about cents on the dollar. Their strategy with the trojan horse Elop played out perfectly.
Sunt curios daca Elop va fi acum inscaunat CEO la Microsoft. But they are doomed nevertheless. Si cred ca MSFT va fi pedepsit azi, chiar daca linia Lumia, cu care ma joc de o saptamana, are cateva idei originale si interesante. Dar e too little too late, suntem cu totii stuck